Oxiano's Mission

Rigorous probabilities,
not arbitrary predictions

Most predictions are opinions. Oxiano is a system. We apply the same quantitative methodology used by hedge funds and algorithmic traders — gradient boosting, dynamic Elo ratings, market intelligence — to every match we analyse. The output is not a tip. It is a probability.

225K+
matches in training set
110
independent features
62–67%
accuracy on picks ≥65% conf.
19.5K
H2H pairs with real history

Why Oxiano exists

The football industry is full of noise — vague predictions, undocumented methods, selectively reported results. Oxiano was built as the opposite: a platform where every number has a formula, every formula has a source, and every result — win or loss — is recorded permanently in the Track Record.

Confidence, edge, Kelly percentage — these are not decorative labels. They are actionable outputs of a model trained on 225,000 matches, validated exclusively on data the model has never seen. That is the standard we hold ourselves to.

How the platform works

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State-of-the-art algorithms
Our main model is an XGBoost classifier trained on 225,000 matches from European leagues (2005–2026). We use 110 independent features — from recent form and Expected Goals (xG) statistics, to dynamically updated Elo ratings and market differentials vs. sharp bookmakers (Pinnacle).
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Rigorous out-of-sample validation
Performance is not reported on training data — only on matches unseen by the model (Oct 2025–Mar 2026). On picks with confidence ≥65%, the model achieved 62–67% accuracy on the validation set — vs. 45–48% for an uninformed bettor on the same matches. The difference is generated by filtering on edge against the sharp market.
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Integrated market intelligence
We integrate closing odds from sharp bookmakers to calculate market edge and filter matches with genuine statistical value. A pick with no market edge is not issued, regardless of the model's raw confidence. This is the difference between a disciplined system and a noisy one.
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Continuous updates
Picks are automatically recalculated at 07:00 and 13:00 (Romania time), incorporating all available matches for the current day. Elo ratings update after every match, and form windows are computed over rolling 5- and 10-match horizons — home/away split separately.
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Kelly Criterion for risk management
Each pick includes a Kelly percentage calculated from the model's confidence and the implied market odds. The Kelly Criterion is the mathematical standard for optimising long-term bankroll growth, used by quant funds and professional traders.
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Goal market analysis
Beyond the 1X2 result, the model estimates the probability of Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score (BTTS) — using Poisson simulations calibrated on each team's attack/defence averages. These signals are shown only when the model has a sufficiently clear opinion.
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Combo Analyzer — combined Kelly
The Combo Analyzer lets you build an accumulator from the day's picks and automatically calculates the combined odds, cumulative probability and optimal Kelly stake for the full ticket. A risk management tool not found at competitors in the same price range.
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Transparency and accountability
All historical results are stored publicly in the Track Record section. We do not delete losing picks. We do not downgrade confidence after the result. Oxiano does not hold an ONJN licence and does not provide betting advice — we offer statistical analysis for educational and informational purposes.

What Oxiano is NOT

  • We are not a betting service and do not hold an ONJN licence or equivalent
  • We do not guarantee profit and do not claim our picks are winners
  • We do not delete or retroactively modify Track Record results
  • We do not use insider data, confidential information or illegal sources
  • We do not offer financial or investment advice of any kind

Explore the platform

Daily picks auto-updated · Public & verifiable track record · Per-league analysis

Today's Picks →Track Record📖 User Guide
Statistical analysis for educational purposes · Not betting advice

⚠️ DISCLAIMER — Oxiano provides statistical analysis and business intelligence for informational and educational purposes only. This does not constitute betting advice, financial recommendation, or inducement to place bets. Users are solely responsible for their own decisions. T&C · Privacy